Is a recession coming? Many say we’re in the final stages of the economic cycle: the current US expansion is about to become the longest ever, and all good things must end. The global economy is slowing, warning signs are flashing, and folks are starting to prep.

When? It’s not if, but when. Some think it could be this year, others are eyeing 2020 or 2021. But with globalization tying economies together, any US recession will hurt other countries as well. 🌍

What might cause it?

• The economy could overheat: inflation rises, the Federal Reserve hikes rates to tackle it, and higher rates slow growth.

• A corporate debt meltdown: US companies’ debt is at record highs, and if interest rates rise, defaults might spread.

• Trade wars: if tensions between the US and China escalate, pricier imports and falling exports might grind growth to a halt.

How bad? Hard to say – but some worry it could be serious because our tools are limited: interest rates are already low, and government debt is high. If countries aren’t able to stimulate the economy or don’t cooperate, we could face a tough slog. Nevertheless, being prepared and staying informed will help you ride out the storm. ⛅

In this Guide, you’ve learned:

🔹 A recession is when an economy shrinks 🔹 They can be caused by inflation, high interest rates, market shocks, or credit crunches 🔹 When economies collapse, stocks, currencies, and corporate bonds tend to fall in value – but government bonds often do well 🔹 Stocks perform really well in a recovery, but the success of one depends on central banks and governments managing policies carefully 🔹 A recession is likely on its way soon – and we may not have as much policy ammo as last time to fight it